河北广平地震台数字电扰动异常分析     

贾华  乔子云  贾立峰  张国苓  寇海川  张双凤  张小涛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(4):95-101

自2018年1月11日，河北广平地震台数字电扰动仪NS、EW测道每日北京时间18时至次日06时出现规律性高值变化。通过观测系统检测、测区环境调查、现场实验分析、周边台站观测对比、其他台干扰形态分析及震例总结等手段，并对各种可能的影响因素进行分析论证，综合分析认为，该变化为干扰的可能性较大，非地震前异常。  相似文献   

华北—东北地区震磁异常与日本强震对应关系     

孙澎涛  任俊峰  焦成丽  孙贵成  张玉林 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(2):45-51

选取2009—2014年华北—东北地区发生的12次中等地震,对该区8个地磁台站记录的地磁Z分量日变幅进行小波分析及合成计算,与日本海沟同期发生的12次M≥6.5强震进行关联性分析,发现日本强震对中国华北—东北地区中等地震活动具有连带作用,表现在:(1)日本强震发生前后,华北或东北地区均有M 4—5地震出现,频次一般为1—3,间隔几天至5个月左右;(2) 2011年3月10日日本M 9.1地震后,华北、东北地区中等地震震级有所升高,其中东北地区由M 4升至M 5,距日本最近的中俄交界甚至出现M 6.1地震,华北地区唐山老震区出现1次M 4.8地震,震级接近5;(3)每次日本强震出现后几天至2个月内,8个地磁台地磁Z分量小波细节6阶合成曲线值均出现2—6个月高值异常,但幅度大小与强震震级无明显规律可循,而华北或东北地区中等地震一般在异常高值出现前后低值附近发生。  相似文献   

2000年以来青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的响应关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

闾利  张廷斌  易桂花  苗加庆  李景吉  别小娟  黄祥麟 《湖泊科学》2019,31(2):573-589

青藏高原星罗密布的湖泊对气候变化十分敏感，在自然界水循环和水平衡中发挥着重要作用.以MODIS MOD09A1和SRTM DEM为数据源，提取了2000-2016年青藏高原丰水期面积大于50 km²的湖泊边界，从内外流分区、湖泊主要补给来源和湖水矿化度三个方面对2000年以来湖泊面积变化进行分析，并结合青藏高原近36年气象数据，根据气象要素变化趋势分区，初步探讨青藏高原湖泊面积变化与气候要素的关系.结果表明：青藏高原面积大于50 km²的138个湖泊整体扩张趋势显著，总面积增加2340.67 km²，增长率为235.52 km²/a.其中，扩张型湖泊占67.39%，萎缩型湖泊占12.32%，稳定型湖泊占20.29%.内流湖扩张趋势显著，外流湖扩张趋势较明显；以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊整体扩张趋势明显，以地表径流和河流补给为主要补给源的湖泊也呈扩张趋势；盐湖和咸水湖以扩张为主，淡水湖的扩张、萎缩和稳定三种类型较均衡.在青藏高原气候暖湿化方向发展背景下，湖泊面积变化与气候要素具有显著的区域相关性.气温和降水变化趋势分区结果表明，气温增加、降水增加强趋势的高原Ⅰ区湖泊扩张程度（78.18%）依次大于气温降低、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅴ区（66.67%），气温、降水量呈增加趋势的Ⅱ区（60.78%），气温呈降低、降水量呈增加强趋势的Ⅳ区（58.83%）和气温呈增加、降水量呈减少趋势的Ⅲ区（50.00%）.湖泊面积变化对气候变化响应研究表明，升温引起的冰雪融水补给对Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区湖泊面积扩张的影响显著，加之降水量的增加，湖泊扩张速率明显；Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区湖泊面积扩张主要受降水量增加影响显著.整体而言，气温主要影响以冰雪融水为主要补给来源的湖泊，降水量主要影响以降水和地表径流为主要补给来源的湖泊.  相似文献   

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

地表覆盖分类成果质量特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

商建伟 《测绘通报》2020,(9):159-161

自我国全面建成地理国情普查成果库之后，工作重心由全面普查变为重点监测。不论普查还是监测，准确地对地表覆盖进行分类一直是工作的重点和难点。在常态化监测阶段，把握地表覆盖分类成果的主要质量指标，归纳其诸如变化率、变化区域分布、变化类型，分析影响其成果质量的主要因素，对监测生产组织及质量控制具有非常重要的作用。  相似文献   

泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度演变   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

蔡红艳  韩冬锐  杨林生  陈慕琳  杨小唤 《遥感学报》2020,24(8):1045-1059

深入理解泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度的演变, 对于全球碳通量模拟、气候变化预测及泛北极地区冻融风险评估具有重要意义。目前开展的泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度模拟与分析, 大多无法全覆盖或空间分辨率过低(25 km或是更大), 在景观尺度(公里级)上的多年冻土活动层厚度变化特征仍有待解析, 尤其是关键基础设施区的活动层厚度变化仍不清楚。本研究基于站点监测数据、MOD11B3地表温度数据、MCD12C1土地覆盖数据, 采用Stefan模型, 在公里级空间分辨率上模拟泛北极地区2001年—2017年多年冻土活动层厚度, 并解析泛北极地区及主要油气区多年冻土活动层厚度时空变化格局及主要原因。研究发现: 2001年—2017年泛北极地区约有78.4%的冻土区域多年冻土活动层厚度呈现增长趋势, 尽管全区多年平均的增长速率为0.22 cm/a (p<0.05), 但具有较强的时空差异性。显著增长区主要集中在加拿大西北部的落基山脉及劳伦琴高原一带以及俄罗斯中西伯利亚高原中部地区, 增加速率主要在0.5—1 cm/a；而减少区主要分布在加拿大的哈得孙湾沿岸平原、拉布拉多高原一带, 俄罗斯的东西伯利亚山地北部、中西伯利亚高原的北部、贝加尔湖以东区域和泰拉尔半岛一带。泛北极地区主要油气区多年冻土活动层厚度也以增加为主, 80%以上的油气区呈现增加趋势, 增长速率在0.1—0.7 cm/a。泛北极地区多年冻土活动层厚度变化与气温变化在空间上具有较好的一致性；积雪厚度与活动层厚度关系复杂；不同植被类型的多年冻土活动层厚度有所差异(林地>草地>稀树草原>灌丛), 且多年冻土活动层厚度变化与植被转化方向一致。该成果将有助于深入理解北半球高纬度多年冻土区冻融格局, 尤其可为冻土区的油气设施冻融风险识别与防控提供参考。  相似文献   

Streamflow elasticity,in a context of climate change,in arid Andean watersheds of north-central Chile     

Cristián Barrera  Jorge Núñez Cobo  Maxime Souvignet  Jorge Oyarzún 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1707-1719

ABSTRACT

Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed.  相似文献   

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability     

Abdullah Akbas  Jim Freer  Hasan Ozdemir  Paul D. Bates  M. Tufan Turp 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5441-5455

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.  相似文献   

Integration of remote sensing,county-level census,and machine learning for century-long regional cropland distribution data reconstruction     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

The Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) was home to about ten million hectare bottomland hardwood (BLH) forests in the Southern U.S. It experienced over 80 % area loss of the BLH forests in the past centuries and large-scale afforestation in recent decades. Due to the lack of a high-resolution cropland dataset, impacts of land use change (LUC) on the LMAV ecosystem services have not been fully understood. In this study, we developed a novel framework by integrating the machine learning algorithm, county-level agricultural census, and satellite-based cropland products to reconstruct the LMAV cropland distribution during 1850–2018 at a 30-m resolution. Results showed that the LMAV cropland area increased from 0.78 × 10⁴ km² in 1850 to 6.64 × 10⁴ km² in 1980 and then decreased to 6.16 × 10⁴ km² in 2018. Cropland expansion rate was the largest in the 1960s (749 km² yr⁻¹) but decreased rapidly thereafter, whereas cropland abandonment rate increased substantially in recent decades with the largest rate of 514 km² yr⁻¹ in the 2010s. Our dataset has three notable features: (1) the depiction of fine spatial details, (2) the integration of the county-level census, and (3) the inclusion of a machine-learning algorithm trained by satellite-based land cover product. Most importantly, our dataset well captured the continuous increasing trend in cropland area from 1930–1960, which was misrepresented by other cropland datasets reconstructed from the state-level census. Our dataset would be important to accurately evaluate the impacts of historical deforestation and recent afforestation efforts on regional ecosystem services, attribute the observed hydrological changes to anthropogenic and natural driving factors, and investigate how the socioeconomic factors control regional LUC pattern. Our framework and dataset are crucial to developing managerial and policy strategies for conserving natural resources and enhancing ecosystem services in the LMAV.  相似文献   

Lakes of the Jom-Bolok Volcanoes Valley in the East Sayan Mts., Baikal region     

Shchetnikov  Alexander  Bezrukova  Elena V. 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(11):1823-1840

Journal of Geographical Sciences - This article describes the lake basins of the Jom-Bolok volcanic region in the East Sayan (the largest manifestation of the Holocene eruptions in Central Asia)....  相似文献